5GW Theory Timeline

Original inaugural post of the blog Dreaming 5GW.  (Others, earlier web posts, were eventually imported from the defunct site Phatic Communion.)

An initial consideration of secrecy leads into a broad outline of how fifth generation warfare may play out, building upon the idea of memetic engineering:

The goal is to have the target believe he is acting entirely under his own free will (which he actually is) while not realizing that another has influenced him to act in a particular way.

Ultimately, a cascading series of acts committed by multiple targets — perhaps in collusion or in confrontation — will lead to a paradigmatic shift not only in general world views but also in the concrete world (which is constantly being shaped by acts motivated by world views.)

This consideration and recent blog posts on the blogs ZenPundit, tdaxp, and Thomas P. M. Barnett, lead the author to wonder “that Thomas Barnett’s PNM theory is very 5GWish.” Both 5GW and PNM have violent and non-violent features. A previous conversation at the blog PurpleSlog had considered the possibility that Thomas Barnett’s PNM theory might be a type of fifth generation warfare.

“The sandwich generations-of-war strategy,” a recent blog post on Thomas Barnett’s blog, is considered; but CGW believes Thomas Barnett is wrong to assume that “we deny evolution toward 5GW in those parts of the Gap we deny to our enemies” [TPMB]. Rather, the triumph of U.S. 3GW in the Gap would only produce opponents who would necessarily be forced to operate at the next generational level; stopping the development of 4GW in the Gap with a superior 3GW (assuming that would be possible) would force our enemies to develop a 5GW strategy.

However,

the idealized version of Barnett’s system would likely produce — it is hoped — a world view paradigm shift within a significant portion of the Gap populace that would serve to preempt opposition…

Even so, the attempt to create that paradigm shift openly, as prescribed by Thomas Barnett, would keep it from being 5GW,

simply because the cards held in hand are displayed openly for whatever opposition exists at the outset, and because 5GW will be about having others make the decisions and act as if they were acting entirely on their own. That kind of decision to believe in a reality is the kind most likely to stick. It is in fact the kind of decision, leading to perseverance, any opposition within the Gap will have.

The post concludes by quoting a portion of Mark Safranski’s reaction to Thomas Barnett’s post — citing increased connectivity and openness as a potential vehicle for empowering “Global Guerrillas” [re: John Robb] — and then considering the possibility that so many millions within the gap may be greatly influenced by a handful of superempowered individuals.

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